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Latest COVID-research – NBER Working Papers

This thread lists COVID-related papers recently published in the Working Papers series of the National Bureau of Economic Research (United States).

From the 2 November edition:

NOTE: The NBER Working Papers series publishes early findings of ongoing research to encourage discussion and collect suggestions for revisions. Papers are neither peer reviewed nor endorsed by the NBER Board of directors.

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Avoiding another lockdown by separating the elderly from the young?

Based on their ongoing research and simulations, Andrea Ichino, Carlo Favero and Aldo Rustichini argue in a recent op-ed that targeted measures to minimize close contact between the elderly and the young could bring down significantly the number of infections among higher age groups. This in turn could save lives, prevent the health care system from collapse and allow more economic activity to continue. Proposed measures include separated use of public transport, more home working arrangements for higher age groups and time slots reserved for elderly people at supermarktes.

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“Optimal Management of an Epidemic”

Carlos Garriga, Rody Manuelli and Siddhartha Sanghi study a dynamic macro model to capture the trade-off between policies that simultaneously decrease output and the rate of infection transmission. Findings suggest that, in many cases, optimal policies require sharp initial decreases in employment followed by a partial liberalization that occurs before the peak of the epidemic. The study also discusses the impact of the arrival of a vaccine and its changing value as the epidemic progresses.